BCS Title Game Breakdown: Part 3

The wait is nearly over.  Tomorrow college football fans will get to see the match they have been waiting for since mid-season when Auburn and Oregon bring their high-powered offenses to Glendale, Arizona to declare this year’s BCS Champion.  In case you missed it, College FootBlog provided two previous breakdowns for this match up, but in the finale, we will provide what we feel will ultimately be the difference in this shoot-out, and we will give our score prediction.

As we pointed out in our first breakdown, each team has an X-factor, and both Oregon’s Darron Thomas and Auburn’s Cam Newton are on the offensive side of the ball.  The difference in this game, however, will be who can make plays on defense.

For Oregon, there has been a lot of talk about senior linebacker Casey Matthews, and rightfully so.  If Oregon has a shot in this game, however, FS John Boyett must have a big game.  Boyett is tied for the team lead in interceptions with five and ranks third on the team in tackles with 67.  The talented sophomore defensive back has proven all season that he is dangerous against the pass, but he is also excellent in run support.  The Ducks will need the best of both worlds against Newton, who is the most dangerous dual threat quarterback in the nation.

Auburn DT Nick Fairley has dominated all season and will be key in the BCS Title Game on Monday (google images)

For Auburn, DT Nick Fairley is one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the country, and the Tigers’ success or failure to limit Oregon’s potent rushing attack, led by the nation’s top rusher LaMichael James, will depend largely on how effective Fairly is against the very quick offensive line from Oregon.  The dominant defensive tackle has racked up 21.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks on the season.

Final Analysis/Score Predicition

We agree with the experts that this game will light up the score board.  We believe that Fairely’s impact on this game could be the difference.  Fairley has dominated all season, many of those games coming at the expense of a solid running game (see Alabama).  While the Crimson Tide’s rushing numbers have been down considerably compared to last season, they were finally healthy and back up to full strength for the Iron Bowl match up and presented Auburn with a very balanced attack.  Fairley dominated against both the run and pass.

Although Auburn has faced the spread attack, they have not faced the speed and balance that Oregon presents.  Still, in the end, we expect Auburn to create a key turnover in the second half that could prove to be the difference, and most turnovers, even the interceptions, are caused by pressure up the middle.

As Terrell Owens would say, “Get your popcorn ready.”  This will be a fun game to watch that will likely not be decided until late in the game.  Our final score prediction:  Auburn wins 41-31.

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