College FootBlog 3rd &1: Week 7

In this new feature, College FootBlog’s 3rd & 1 will provide a quick, three-part analysis of the current week of college football, and we’ll also feature one thing to look for in the upcoming week of action. 

1st:  11 wins, 8 losses.  That’s Lane Kiffin’s record as a college football head coach after losing for the second consecutive week on a late field goal.  Things could get much, much worse for Kiffin as the season moves along.  The Trojans have given up 30 or more points in three of their six games this season, and they still must face the nation’s top offense, Oregon and the 22nd and 26th offenses in the country, Arizona State and Arizona, respectively.  With that schedule looming, Kiffin could find himself out of USC almost as quickly as he left Tennessee last season.

So far in 2010, Florida QB John Brantley has not been able to get the Gators going on offense (google images)

2nd:  Florida’s offense will cost them at least one more loss.  Urban Meyer has tried to downplay John Brantley’s ineffectiveness all season, but here is a stat that no one saw coming–the Gators offense is ranked 96th nationally.  Looking at the remaining games on the schedule, the Gators have three games that should have fans concerned.  Georgia is down this year, but look for them to pull out all the stops in their annual battle in Jacksonville, and then UF will take on South Carolina before finishing up in Tallahassee against the much-improved Florida State Seminoles.  It’s hard to imagine the Gators winning all three of those games with their play so far this season.

3rd:  Alabama will still be in the SEC Championship Game and challenge for the BCS National Title.  Give all the credit in the world to Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks for knocking off the defending national champs this past weekend.  After blowing out the hated Gators the previous weekend, the Tide’s defense was exposed against Carolina QB Stephen Garcia.  Nick Saban will use this as a wake up call, and if the Crimson Tide can take care of business and win out the rest of the season, it will be very hard to keep them out of the national title game in January.

….and 1:  Although Alabama’s running back duo of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson get all the hype, Wisconsin’s tandem of John Clay and freshman sensation James White have 339 more yards and seven more touchdowns in the same number of games.  Clay and White have combined for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns behind the Badgers’ massive offensive line.  Fire meets steel this weekend in Madison as Ohio State brings the nation’s #4 ranked rushing defense to town in a contest that has Big Ten title implications.  If Wisconsin can run the ball effectively, they will have a great shot at knocking OSU off, which would create a wild finish for the conference title.

2010 College Football SEC East Preview

In the last two weeks, College FootBlog has unveiled our Preseason Rankings for the ACC and the Big Ten.  This week, we take our shot at the SEC in another two-part breakdown.  We start with the SEC East and we will roll out our SEC West breakdown later in the week.  The SEC has long been known for being the best conference in college football, and this year should be no different.  Here is how we see the rankings going into the summer:

Florida QB John Brantley will put up big numbers this fall, but he will need a physical RB to join him in the backfield in the red zone (google images).

1.  Florida:  The loss of Tebow will certainly hurt the Gators’ chances, but Florida fans will quickly realize that John Brantley is a much more polished passer than their former Heisman Trophy winner at QB.  Brantley has more arm strength and more accuracy, and with UF’s speed at wide receiver, he will put up big numbers this fall.  There are two unknowns for Florida going into the fall that have been strengths of the team the last three years–talent and experience on defense and short-yardage plays on offense.  The Gators lost some key players on defense, including DE Carlos Dunlap, LB Brandon Spikes and big-play CB Joe Haden.  Urban Meyer has recruited with the best of them, but replacing those three impact players will be extremely difficult.  The issue that could cost the Gators a game or two this season is that without Tebow, they have no proven short-yardage running back.  With the goal line defenses in the SEC, that will likely cost them dearly in 2010 unless they find someone by August.  If they solve that problem, they will again be the team to beat in their division.

2.  Georgia:  The ‘Dawgs struggled with a conference record of 4-4 last season, but they have a lot of reasons for optimism in 2010.  Head coach Mark Richt will have a new defensive staff going into the fall, as the Bulldogs try to take a page out of Nick Saban’s book and institute the 3-4.  Even though it is an entirely different system, new D-coordinator Todd Grantham has some great players returning, headlined by NT DeAngelo Tyson.  After the spring workouts, Richt announced that Freshman QB Aaron Murray is first on the depth chart, but his inexperience should be offset by All-American WR candidate AJ Green and sophomore RB Washaun Ealey.  With the departure of Tebow from Florida, solid skill players on offense and a revamped defense, 2010 should be a year that UGA challenges Florida for a SEC Championship.

3.  South Carolina:  Steve Spurrier’s “Fun & Gun” offense has never quite materialized since he took over in Columbia, and last season was an offensive season he would like to forget, and much of those issues were due to a very bad offensive line that surrendered more sacks than any team in the SEC and were also dead last in rushing in the conference.  Spurrier brought in Shawn Elliot from Appalachian State to coach the offensive line.  That should help an O-line that can’t get any worse.  The good news for the Gamecocks is that they have some very talented skill players on both sides of the ball.  Offensively, quarterback Stephen Garcia threw for over 2,800 yards and 17 TDs, despite the poor play on the line in front of him.  Look for those numbers to improve behind a better running game.  Defensively, South Carolina returns several players from a defense that finished 15th nationally in total defense.  That defense and an improved line will result in more respect in Columbia this season.

After just one season in Knoxville, Lane Kiffin departed for USC and left the Vols high and dry in the thick of the recruiting season (google images)

4.  Tennessee:  The Vols lost several key players on defense, including NFL first rounder Eric Berry.  The lone bright spot on offense was running back Montario Hardesty, and he has left for the NFL.  Former five-star prospect Bryce Brown announced this past spring that he was leaving the program as well, leaving little in the cupboard for what was already an anemic offense. The key losses on both sides of the ball, in addition to all the coaching changing leave the Vols with an uphill battle this fall.  Now for the bad news.  New head coach Derek Dooley must clean up the mess that former coach Lane Kiffin left behind when he abruptly departed the Vols for USC, just weeks before National Signing Day, which put a major strain on recruiting. The Vols should still have the talent to compete in the SEC, but they are at least another year away from being a serious contender.

5.  Kentucky:  Joker Phillips officially moves from assistant coach to running the show this fall, and he will have his hands full.  The Wildcats must replace four starters on the offensive line and several key players on defense, including linebackers Sam Maxwell and Micah Johnson.  Quarterback Matt Hartline returns this year from injury and should have the upper hand for the starting job, but Morgan Newton, who started seven games last season has a legitimate shot at taking the starting role away during two-a-days.  With all the losses on both sides of the ball, it could be a tough season in Lexington.

6.  Vanderbilt:  If last year’s 2-10 season was any indication, it could be another long season for the Commodores this fall.  It’s not all doom and gloom, though.  Running back Warren Norman returns after being named last season’s SEC Freshman of the Year.  Also on offense, quarterback Jordan Rogers (brother of Green Bay Packers’ QB Aaron Rogers) comes to Vandy after leading his junior college team to a Juco National Championship last season.  Rogers is expected to battle Larry Smith for the starting job.  Regardless of who lines up under center, the Commodores must improve their offense, which finished 110th nationally last season,  if they want to have a shot at a .500 season.

Check College FootBlog later this week for our breakdown of the SEC West!

College Football Preseason Top 25 (#8-#15)

College FootBlog continues our countdown of our Preseason Top 25.  In this edition, we break down teams #8-#15.  In case you missed teams #16-#25, check it out here (#16-#25).  Later in the week, we will unveil the top seven, but until then, check out our analysis and breakdown of the teams that are on the cusp of the Super 7.

8.  Arkansas:  The return of quarterback Ryan Mallett instead of entering the 2010 NFL Draft should pay huge dividends to Bobby Petrino, but it another year under Petrino’s tutelage should only improve Mallett’s draft position next spring.  At 6’7″ and 238 lbs., Mallett has the size that NFL scouts like, but he can also make all the throws.  Mallett has several experienced and proven wide receivers, and several versatile running backs, headlined by Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson.  Offense will not be an issue for the Razorbacks in 2010, but their 89th ranked defense will have to improve if they want to stay in the Top 10 and survive an SEC season.

Wisconsin RB John Clay rushed for 1,500+ yards and 18 TD's last season (google images)

9. Wisconsin: Big Ten foes will get a healthy dose of John Clay in 2010.  The reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year checks in at 6’1″ and tips the scales at just under 250 lbs.   Clay will run behind an experienced offensive line, which will likely consist of three seniors, two of which were All-Big Ten selections in 2009.  Quarterback Scott Tolzien will be a senior and stepped up big in the Champs Sports Bowl.  The Badgers will have to replace quite a few upperclassmen from last year’s dominant defense, but they still have playmakers like defensive back Jay Valai who should be solid enough to slow down the many not-so-creative offenses in the Big Ten.

10.  Oklahoma:  The Sooners have a tough test early when Florida State comes to town on September 11th.  If they can survive that game, they have the Red River Rivalry minus Colt McCoy, and the rest of the Big 12 schedule could be smooth sailing.  Rival Oklahoma State will be without QB Zack Robinson and WR Dez Bryant (although Bryant was suspended for virtually all of last year).  The Sooners will have to fill the void of likely top-five pick DT Gerald McCoy, but the defense should hold their own in 2010.  Sam Bradford’s injury hurt the Sooners, but it gave Landry Jones some great experience.  As a freshman, Jones was a bit inconsistent, but he showed flashes of brilliance last year.  If he can continue to improve, he could be the next great quarterback produced by QB coach Josh Heupel.

11.  Florida:  Although Orlando Sentinel reporter Jeremy Fowler was berated by Urban Meyer, his interview with wide receiver Deonte Thompson was spot on.  As great as Tim Tebow was, John Brantley will prove to be a much better quarterback, in the traditional sense of the position.  While Brantley will not bring the running ability of Tebow, he is a much more polished passer and should stretch the field vertically much better than his predecessor.  The losses of key contributors on defense, including linebacker Brandon Spikes and cornerback Joe Haden will hurt, but what could hurt the Gators the most in 2010 is the goal line opportunities.  With the departure of Tebow, there is no significant threat for short-yardage threats in the Florida backfield.

12.  Pitt:  Fresh off a contract extension, Dave Wannstedt is really settling in as the Panthers’ head coach.  The loss of Bill Stull hurts a bit, but Pitt has a couple of capable back ups at QB, in sophomore Tino Sunseri and junior Pat Bostick.  Whoever wins the starting QB job has the luxury of having Dion Lewis in the backfield.  Lewis was one of the best running backs in the nation last year, and he was only a freshman.  As good as the offense should be for the Panthers, however, the strength of the 2010 team will likely be the defense.  Going into the spring, the defense looks to have seven juniors and two seniors in the starting line up.

FSU's Christian Ponder will try to throw his hat in the ring of this year's Heisman race (google images)

13. Florida State: The Seminoles were an average defense from being a 10-win team last season.  Unfortunately for Bobby Bowden and legendary defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews, the FSU defense was shredded all season in ’09, ranking 108th nationally overall.  Three of the ‘Noles’ six losses were by touchdown or less.  The bright side for FSU was the offense, led by quarterback Christian Ponder, who will likely be in the Heisman discussion this season.  Ponder has all five starters on the offensive line returning this fall, led by All-American guard Rodney Hudson.  If the newly revamped defensive coaching staff can improve last season’s dismal defensive unit, first year coach Jimbo Fisher could easily have his team playing for the ACC Championship in December.

14.  USC:  The dominance of the Trojans was bound to come to an end at some point, and 2009 proved that regardless of depth and top-tier recruiting, when you ship eleven players to the NFL in one season, it is going to have an impact.  Despite the off-the-field distractions and the departure of Pete Carroll, Lane and Monte Kiffin should have Southern Cal back in a familiar place next season–challenging for a Pac 10 Championship.  Linebacker Chris Galippo should reap the benefits of playing under one of the best defensive minds in the NFL or college, Monte Kiffin.  The Trojan offense should see much improvement from last season as well, now that Matt Barkley has a year of experience under his belt.

15.  Iowa:  The Hawkeyes surprised a lot of people last season when they made a serious run at the Big Ten title, and they dominated Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl with great defense and a solid performance from quarterback Ricky Stanzi.  Stanzi will have to be much more consistent in 2010 if the ‘Hawks are going to challenge Ohio State for the title this fall.  Stanzi loses three All-Big Ten offensive lineman, which was anchored by future first-round selection Bryan Bulaga, but they return their top two running backs and stud DE Adrian Clayborn, who surprised many when he announced that despite dominating the Orange Bowl, he would return for his senior season at Iowa City.

Which Kiffin was the Biggest Hire?

Lane Kiffin is known for making headlines, often times for the wrong reasons.  He was cited for several minor recruiting violations last year at Tennessee.  USC has had their share of negative media attention since the departure of Reggie Bush and the suspicious events that surrounded his parents’ home and its connection with a sports agent.

Monte Kiffin will once again be roaming the sidelines with his son in 2010 (google images)

Even with the numerous allegations of possible violations from the NCAA, combined with the departure of legendary recruiter Pete Carroll, the USC Trojans still put one of the top (if not the top) recruiting classes in the country a few weeks ago. 

 Carroll was as good of a defensive mind that USC had ever seen, but with all due respect, Carroll does not have an entire defensive scheme named after him. 

Enter Monte Kiffin, who created the “Tampa 2” defense during his tenure as defensive coordinator for the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The acquisition of his son, Lane Kiffin as the head coach was not nearly as impactful as Monte as the defensive coordinator. 

If there were any questions of whether or not the elder Kiffin could translate his success to the college level, there is no doubt now.  Monte’s defense at the University of Tennessee was not only one of the best in the SEC, it was among the nation’s elite, ranking 22nd in total defense and 12th overall against the pass.

Despite the loss of several key starters on defense, including four-year starter and projected first round draft pick Taylor Mays, the Trojans have plenty of talent and depth for Kiffin to work with. 

The inexperience and injuries to the linebacker corps really hurt the Trojans last year, and let’s face it–they placed three linebackers in the first day of the last year’s NFL Draft.  Even with the plethora of athletes that USC has, replacing three NFL players (all of whom saw significant playing time as rookies). 

If there was a silver lining to the departure of Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews and Rey Maualuga did allow Chris Galippo, Devon Kennard and Malcolm Smith to get valuable experience last season.   If they can stay healthy, especially at linebacker, look for the Southern Cal defense to very good in 2010, but they could be downright scary in 2011, after the Kiffins have two recruiting classes under their belts.

When it’s all said and done, it could be Monte, not Lane, that puts USC back in the hunt for a Pac 10 title and a National Championship.

Time for the NCAA to Change with the Times

With all the strong emotions created from college coaches coming and going from football programs like most of us change shoes, one thing has been lost–the student-athletes these changes affect.  While there are many arguements for and against a college coaches right and opportunity to walk from a program despite the agreed upon contracts, it is not the administrations, athletic departments and alumni that are affected the most, but instead, the young men who made their commitment to the particular school.

Despite only monetary punishments (and in the case of Rich Rodriguez and West Virginia, a possible law suit), there are no real sanctions in place for coaches or universities not holding up their contracts.  The players, on the other hand, are still required to sit out a year if they wish to transfer.  This is due to an NCAA rule that is strictly enforced.

Now, more than ever, college sports, particularly college football, have quickly become a huge income producer for colleges and universities.  The NCAA gets their cut of the revenues, too.  In 2008, the NCAA reports revenues showed over $590 million from television and marketing rights alone. 

This big business has created an environment where many top coaches will go to the highest bidder, and while the lack of loyalty is ridiculed, it is accepted as just a sign of the times.

Don’t tell that to Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett.  Mallett originally signed his letter of intent to play for Lloyd Carr and the Michigan Wolverines out of high school.  When Carr was forced out of Ann Arbor, Mallett would find out that his new coach would be West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez, who ran a completely different offense that the traditional pro style offense that Michigan ran when Mallett decided to enroll there.

Mallett transferred to Arkanasas, and despite an appeal to the NCAA, he was forced to sit out the entire 2008 season for not honoring his commitment.  In the end, the NCAA showed no compassion for an 18-year old kid who was caught in a bait and switch by the Michigan athletic department, and he was punished accordingly.

It now appears that Kiffin will not be singing "Rocky Top" anywhere next season (google images)

More recently (just three weeks before college football’s National Signing Day), it was announced that Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin has decided to jump ship for USC after just one year in Knoxville.  Nevermind the 18 recruits who have committed to UT.  Two of those recruits have already signed the letter of intent, which binds them to that commitment.

And nevermind the fact that a huge factor in the commitments of these recruits was because of the coaching staff, that will subsequently not be there any longer.

A similar situation has been brewing in Gainesville, Florida, where head coach Urban Meyer announced that he was resigning, due to health issues.  A day later, after a huge fallout of the 2010 recruiting class for the Gators, which included a brief decommitment from safety Matt Elam, the bell cow of the Florida class, Meyer quickly changed his mind, at least to the media and the recruits. 

He said after going to one practice, he realized that he would instead take a leave of absence, and it has been reported that he has told several prized recruits that he plans to resume the head coaching role in August.

If Meyer does what many expect, he will not be the head coach at Florida next season.  But in the high-stakes game of college recruiting, the Florida Gators could not afford to take a big hit, just weeks before signing day, so Meyer’s resignation was downplayed to an indefinite leave.

Whether health, family or any other issues do not allow Meyer to roam the sidelines in time for the fall, 20-25 young men will be playing for a coach that they did not commit to, and they will be punished, should any of them choose to transfer. 

Unless the NCAA changes or at least, modifies their current rules on transfer rights of student-athletes, coaches and universities will continue to have every right to fire coaches, leave for greener pastures and in some cases, even lie or mislead 17-18 year old kids

Why should the NCAA hold 17-22 year olds to a higher standard than the coaches and administrations that are designed to support them?  In the meantime, the recruits who have committed to schools in transition, like Florida and Tennessee, now have three weeks to make a decision that will have a direct effect on the next 4-5 years of their lives. 

Better get it right, kids….the NCAA is watching.